KanawatTH

This article was written by Dividend Sensei.

The media loves to hype the future, and that’s what it’s been doing with the “AI war” between Google (GOOGL) (GOOG) and Microsoft’s (MSFT) Bing.

Over the first few days of MSFT’s

Metric

2022 Growth Consensus

2023 Growth Consensus (recession year)

2024 Growth Consensus

2025 Growth Consensus

2026 Growth Consensus

Sales

8%

12%

8%

8%

11%

Dividend

8%

10%

8%

10%

7%

FFO

9%

6%

8%

11%

12%

AFFO

9%

6%

8%

11%

12%

EBITDA

4%

-17%

10%

11%

NA

EBIT (operating income)

4%

-50%

16%

16%

NA

Investment Strategy

Yield

LT Consensus Growth

LT Consensus Total Return Potential

Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return

Equinix (Analyst Consensus)

1.9%

14.9%

16.8%

11.8%

Nasdaq

0.8%

10.9%

11.7%

8.2%

Equinix (9% Growth Rate)

1.9%

9.0%

10.9%

7.6%

Dividend Aristocrats

1.9%

8.5%

10.4%

7.3%

S&P 500

1.7%

8.5%

10.2%

7.1%

REITs

3.9%

6.1%

10.0%

7.0%

60/40 Retirement Portfolio

2.1%

5.1%

7.2%

5.0%

Time Frame (Years)

7.9% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted S&P 500 Consensus

14.6% CAGR Inflation-Adjusted EQIX Consensus

Difference Between Inflation-Adjusted EQIX Consensus And S&P Consensus

5

$1,465.25

$1,973.17

$507.92

10

$2,146.96

$3,893.41

$1,746.45

15

$3,145.84

$7,682.37

$4,536.53

20

$4,609.44

$15,158.64

$10,549.19

25

$6,753.99

$29,910.60

$23,156.61

30

$9,896.29

$59,018.77

$49,122.48

Time Frame (Years)

Ratio Inflation-Adjusted EQIX Consensus vs. S&P consensus

5

1.35

10

1.81

15

2.44

20

3.29

25

4.43

30

5.96

Metric

Historical Fair Value Multiples (10-Years)

2022

2023

2024

2025

12-Month Forward Fair Value

5-Year Average Yield

1.76%

$704.55

$775.00

$775.00

$913.07

13-year median yield

1.75%

$708.57

$779.43

$779.43

$918.29

P/FFO

25.54

$754.71

$792.76

$860.70

$963.37

Average

$721.91

$782.32

$803.18

$931.04

$785.53

Current Price

$716.76

Discount To Fair Value

0.71%

8.38%

10.76%

23.01%

8.75%

Upside To Fair Value (including dividend)

0.72%

9.15%

12.06%

29.90%

11.50%

2023 FFO

2024 FFO

2022 Weighted FFO

2023 Weighted FFO

12-Month Forward FFO

Historical Average Fair Value Forward P/FFO

Current Forward P/FFO

$31.04

$33.70

$26.26

$5.18

$31.45

25.0

22.8

Rating

Margin Of Safety For Very Low-Risk 13/13 Ultra SWAN Quality Companies

2023 Fair Value Price

2024 Fair Value Price

12-Month Forward Fair Value

Potentially Reasonable Buy

0%

$782.32

$803.18

$785.53

Potentially Good Buy

5%

$743.21

$763.02

$746.26

Potentially Strong Buy

15%

$664.98

$682.70

$667.70

Potentially Very Strong Buy

25%

$557.41

$602.38

$589.15

Potentially Ultra-Value Buy

35%

$508.51

$522.07

$510.60

Currently

$716.76

8.38%

10.76%

8.75%

Upside To Fair Value (Including Dividends)

11.05%

13.96%

11.50%

x

FAST Graphs, FactSet

Classification

S&P LT Risk-Management Global Percentile

Risk-Management Interpretation

Risk-Management Rating

BTI, ILMN, SIEGY, SPGI, WM, CI, CSCO, WMB, SAP, CL

100

Exceptional (Top 80 companies in the world)

Very Low Risk

Strong ESG Stocks

86

Very Good

Very Low Risk

Equinix

83

Very Good

Very Low Risk

Foreign Dividend Stocks

77

Good, Bordering On Very Good

Low Risk

Ultra SWANs

74

Good

Low Risk

Dividend Aristocrats

67

Above-Average (Bordering On Good)

Low Risk

Low Volatility Stocks

65

Above-Average

Low Risk

Master List average

61

Above-Average

Low Risk

Dividend Kings

60

Above-Average

Low Risk

Hyper-Growth stocks

59

Average, Bordering On Above-Average

Medium Risk

Dividend Champions

55

Average

Medium Risk

Monthly Dividend Stocks

41

Average

Medium Risk